The overall box office last weekend was $209 million, with 87% of that coming from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
’s $181 million opening. This weekend will be dominated once again by the MCU
film, which has a good shot of topping the charts until Avatar: The Way of Water
opens on December 16. The main question is how well it will hold and how much it can prop up an otherwise weak box office, which saw no other film even make it to the double digits last weekend, an unfortunate stat that is likely to be repeated this weekend (in better times, the second weekend on the first Black Panther
had three other films above $10 million). This weekend’s overall box office has a chance of staying above $100 million, but that would require a “better than the usual blockbuster” hold from Wakanda Forever
. A 60% drop for the sequel would put it at $72.5 million this weekend, which is reasonable to expect, and in that scenario the rest of the box office would have a hard time lifting the overall numbers up into the nine digits, barring any surprises from the newcomers.